Changing tactics and new targets: How Russia could try to shift course of war

 Will the Kremlin launch a new wave of mobilization, and could Belarus enter a war against Ukraine?

No progress is being observed in negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. The three-day parade ceasefire does not yet look like the beginning of real peace.

Whether Putin will dare to again carry out mass mobilization of Russians to change the course of the war, whether there is a threat from Belarus, and which new targets could become objectives of Russian strikes — in the RBC-Ukraine article.

Main points:

・Attempt to change course. If negotiations finally reach a deadlock, the Kremlin may move to a new stage of escalation in the war against Ukraine.

・Change of priorities. Alongside the energy sector, defense industry facilities, gas production infrastructure, and fuel infrastructure are increasingly becoming priority targets for Russia.

・Mobilization in Russia. Kremlin has not yet made a decision on large-scale mobilization, but such a scenario remains one of the possible options and could involve a repeat of autumn 2022.

・Belarus activity. Lukashenko continues to help Russia in the war. However, direct threat from Belarus is currently assessed as low.

The peace process between Ukraine and Russia has stalled. The United States calls this a deadlock, but it managed to help achieve a three-day ceasefire during the parade in Moscow.

"Parade has been propaganda of victory since Soviet times, and use of victory in Second World War as myth can be destroyed by one drone that demonstrates Putin's inability to protect Russia against the background of the same Soviet-era leaders," said head of the Center for Countering Disinformation of the National Security and Defense Council Andriy Kovalenko.

Donald Trump suggested that this ceasefire could continue after May 11 as well. However, several military and political sources interviewed by RBC-Ukraine consider such a possibility extremely unlikely. Moreover, according to them, the current silence can also be called very conditional.

"In fact, this is a pause in strikes with guided aerial bombs, long-range drones, and missiles. Nothing stopped on the front line. They continue assaults as before. We expected them to launch a massive missile strike before May 9 — this did not happen. But they accumulated capabilities, and we know about their plans," one informed source told the publication.

Putin's latest statements also do not indicate that he is currently ready to stop. And although his army can continue fighting for the Donetsk region for more than another year, while the Russian economy increasingly feels the price of the war they unleashed, Moscow shows no readiness for compromise decisions.

The question is — what else can Putin do to change the situation in his favor if there is no peace?

Strikes

The Russian campaign of strikes against energy infrastructure, which they carried out during winter and autumn, was devastating for Ukraine but unsuccessful for Moscow. Hundreds of missiles and drones managed to cause even greater damage to our energy system than in 2022-2023, but did not force our authorities and society to accept any of the Kremlin's demands.

"After winter, they held a review within military leadership: Ukraine increased production and use of weapons, particularly the drones they use — how did this happen? And then they realized: for several months in a row, they concentrated on energy facilities and did not attack our defense production," one informed RBC-Ukraine source said.

Now, Russians have somewhat shifted focus: Moscow identified our defense industry facilities among key targets, while at the same time periodically attacking energy and fuel infrastructure facilities.

"The enemy is interested in our strategic enterprises. Among priority targets of Russian strikes are our defense production facilities, energy facilities, gas production and oil production sectors, gas stations in frontline territories, strikes on which we have recently recorded. But the enemy also often strikes civilian facilities that have no strategic or military significance. The goal is to keep the population under pressure," Yurii Ihnat, head of the communications department of Air Force Command of Armed Forces of Ukraine, told RBC-Ukraine.

Several sources of publication predict that at least until autumn, Russians do not plan to conduct such a concentrated campaign of attacks against our energy infrastructure as they did in autumn and winter. However, they continue reconnaissance of these facilities and monitor how they are being restored and repaired. At the same time, one of the sources sees a threat that during summer the enemy may begin attacks on water supply systems — something President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned about at the end of March.