Why Manchester United struggle to win when they have more possession

 Manchester United fans may be basking in the euphoria of sparkling wins over Manchester City and Arsenal but at Old Trafford no one has been getting carried away.

“We have to keep it going now,” was one message from high up at the club. “The biggest test is this weekend.”

Fulham at home on Sunday afternoon marks the start of a run of games when United – not the opposition – are expected to be the protagonists and the club’s hierarchy are well aware that this is where the team have run into difficulties in recent seasons.

This campaign is no exception either – and it is a problem Michael Carrick and his staff must fix as they prepare to face Fulham, Tottenham, West Ham, Everton and Crystal Palace over the next month.

Since the start of the 2022-23 season when Erik ten Hag was in charge, United have lost six of the 11 Premier League matches in which they have enjoyed their highest percentage of possession, mustering just 13 points in the process.

Conversely, United have won six – and amassed a total of 22 points – from the 11 games in which they have had their lowest share of possession over the same period.

Indeed, in all league games in which United have seen less than 50 per cent of the ball since Ten Hag’s first season, they have an average win percentage of 49 per cent at 1.7 points per game

It was the case in the 2-0 win over City, when United saw just 31.8 per cent of the ball, and Arsenal, when Carrick’s side had 43.9 per cent possession.

Yet that win percentage and points-per-game figure drop to 43 per cent and 1.49 points in matches where they have had more than 50 per cent possession.

Sitting in, letting United have the ball, inviting them to try to break them down and waiting for the right moment to exploit space is a tactic that numerous opponents have adopted successfully against Ten Hag and Ruben Amorim’s United.

Against City and Arsenal, United were able to break at speed on the transition and more generally pick their moments to spring with their opponents dominating possession but that is not going to be the way of it for the most part over the coming weeks.

No one bar Aston Villa has averaged more points per game against the Premier League’s top six this season than United.

But United rank 12th for results against the division’s bottom six and have drawn seven games against the bottom eight since the start of November.

It did not help that Amorim was often so reluctant to adapt his 3-4-2-1 system depending on the opposition, notably in the dismal 1-1 draw against bottom club Wolves at Old Trafford in December and the previous month in the dire 1-0 defeat at home to Everton, both of which set alarm bells ringing among United executives.

Against Everton, Amorim kept three centre-halves on the pitch occupying a lone striker in Thierno Barry and as such it never really felt like United had a numerical advantage, despite David Moyes’ side playing for almost 80 minutes with 10 men following Idrissa Gueye’s red card.

United had a whopping 69.9 per cent of possession that night and nothing to show for it.

There have only been three occasions when United have seen more of the ball in a Premier League game over the past three and a half seasons – and they happened to lose two of those fixtures, too.

United were particularly poor against Everton and Wolves but it has not been the case that they have been entirely devoid of creativity or imagination or ideas against opponents who sit in and get bodies behind the ball this season.

Their xG figures point to their wastefulness in front of the net at times and failure to convert big chances into goals, although there also appears to be little doubt that Carrick must make United harder to read and predict against opponents who are more reactive than proactive.

United’s top brass will certainly not want to see a repeat on Sunday of their game against Fulham from August, when Marco Silva was able to spell out in very simple terms just how easy it was to combat Amorim’s system.

Bruno Fernandes missed a first-half penalty as United drew 1-1 but it was a far from convincing performance and Silva’s post-match assessment caused some disquiet at Old Trafford.

“We know how they defend and we know how they like to squeeze from the back five,” the Fulham manager said after the match. “And if you don’t give bodies for them to squeeze from the back five you can create superiority in the middle. We know they play with two in the middle so we tried to overload with our three plus Alex Iwobi. It was as simple as that.”

Carrick will hope opponents find nothing simple about playing his side in the weeks and months to come – and that his players can show they have another string to their bow.